An Opinion About Result of Turkey Election in 2018
The Citizens of the Republic of Turkey have decided their options in parliamentary and the presidential elections on 24 June 2018. Erdogan won the election again and became the first president of the new management system in the country. According to leaders’ election night conversations and election conclusion, could we say it is a victory of Erdogan? or reality of AK Party’s dependence on MHP is waiting at the door?
After Turkish citizens’ preference, according to the informal conclusions, this has appeared in TBMM (Turkish Grand National Assembly) and the presidential system which is something new in Turkish political life:
In the Presidential Election:
In the Parliamentary election:
AK Party: %42,56 (295)
CHP: %22,64 (146)
MHP: %11,1 (49)
IYI: %10 (43)
HDP: %11,7 (67)
According to this conclusion and the rules of the new constitutional amendment, the partner of the AK Party, MHP (Nationalist Movement Party) has become a lock party in the new government system. While Erdogan’s party is losing 22 deputies according to elections which are made in 2015, other parties in parliament like CHP (14), MHP (9), HDP (8), Saadet Party (3), and the new-built party IYI Party (43) have been enhanced their powers by winning in this count deputies. This situation is too vital for the ruling party. Because AK Party could not seize the fifty percent plus one deputy of parliament and also it could not seize 3/5 (360) deputies in parliament, this was necessary for changing or arranging the constitution, even though MHP and AK Party made an alliance in this election. As a result, Ak Party that wants to manage an effective parliament process has been addicted to MHP. The explanation made by leader of MHP in election night has shown us this conclusion obviously. Even if Bahceli (The leader of MHP) says they are really determined to go on this alliance, he has not any idea or expectation about next year’s elections which is going to make in local governments whether or not will affect their alliance. Because the AK Party is forcing MHP in local elections in some cities like Adana, Mersin, Manisa which are being accepted MHP’s strongholds. Even if it has not been talked, for now, plans will be made in the close future. Erdogan will have a plan for the next elections like he has always one. Because Erdogan gives too much importance to local elections.
Erdogan protected his chair in the first presidential elections. Actually, we have to say that it is a truth that everybody’s expected. Because Turkish people have accepted the new constitutional amendment to go on their way only with Erdogan. So it was open at the beginning that they will want to see Erdogan first in the new government system’s head. Only, old CHP deputy Muharrem İnce who shows an extraordinary performance to the Turkish public was not been expected by people. This became an unexpected situation for people. İnce’s spectacular performances like making 107 meetings in 50 days, getting high ratings of his participated TV programs, his quick answers to give columnists, and others affected people. Not only affected his party’s partisans but also affected the ruling party’s participants and famous people. No one was expecting like a performance from him. In conclusion, İnce has gathered fruits of this success by rising up CHP’s votes above %30 after 41 years in CHP history. However, this success seems like it will shake the chair of Kemal Kilicdaroglu (leader of CHP) in the party. At the moment, it is being talked by people who are being Ince’s natural leader of the party. At the end of this process, it seems highly probable that Ince will race for the chair of Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Of course, unless the current chairman of CHP suggests to İnce a nomination for Istanbul municipality in the local election.
All those happenings in the last 3 days may be the beginning of born a new leader in Turkish political life or the beginning of an end which is waiting for Erdogan. I am sure Erdogan is understanding this and being ready for it, making a plan to prevent it.